US remains largest Vietnamese export market

Figures indicate that joint trade turnover exceeded US$100 billion for the first time in 2021, reaching US$111.5 billion.

Most notably, in spite of numerous difficulties due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, two-way trade turnover witnessed remarkable growth with nearly US$124 billion.

Despite experiencing a fall in trade turnover to US$110.8 billion in 2023, two-way trade turnover in 2024 hit over US$132 billion, with exports to the US recording roughly US$119 billion, up 23.3% on-year.

These figures duly reflected that the US has remained as Vietnam’s largest export market and the country’s second largest trading partner.

Furthermore, Vietnam has also risen to become the US’ eighth largest trading partner and the US' fourth largest export market within the ASEAN region, playing an increasingly important role within the global supply chain.

Key export items from the Vietnamese market include footwear, wooden furniture, machinery, and optical equipment. According to industry insiders, there will be two scenarios which could see export turnover to the US market maintained.

The most optimistic scenario is that the US still maintains the current tax policy on Vietnamese goods. Amid the trend of shifting supply chains, the Southeast Asian nation can completely welcome investment flows to increase exports.

In the second scenario, if the US moves to impose stricter tariffs, it can make an impact on the global economy, thereby causing Vietnamese goods to be affected.

In this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to assist local enterprises in diversifying markets moving forward.

Meanwhile, Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital, expressed his belief that Vietnam will continue to experience stable growth under the Trump administration.

He highlighted that Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy" policy of maintaining good relations with all major global powers will remain key in driving the country's future success.

Kokalari also noted that even if the US imposes new tariffs on imported goods, it is unlikely to levy heavy tariffs ranging from 20% to 30% on imports from Vietnam. He added that the country still holds a competitive advantage due to strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.