Final sprint to propel economic growth this year

In a recently released report, HSBC revised its forecast for the country’s economic growth to 7%, up from the previous estimate of 6.5%. This optimistic projection is attributed to robust performance in manufacturing, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Notably, the manufacturing sector has gained remarkable momentum, with the industrial production index rising 8.4% over the first 11 months compared to the same period last year. Exports and imports also show positive trends, while FDI inflows continue to grow.

Noting that for the third consecutive year, Vietnam has disbursed over US$20 billion in FDI, HSBC experts predicted that investments in manufacturing will sustain their upward trajectory.

Thanks to steadily increasing production capacity, goods trade remains a standout feature of the economy. This year is no exception. According to the General Department of Customs, as of December 15, the total value of trade turnover exceeded US$747.13 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year. Of this, exports reached US$385.35 billion, an annual increase of 13.9%.

Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), expressed optimism and predicted significant progress with a growth rate of 7% for 2024, restoring the pre-pandemic growth momentum.

Compared to other ASEAN nations, Vietnam's projected growth, as forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October, is among the highest in the region, Khoi said.

In its latest report, Oxford Economics echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Vietnam’s growth will surpass the average of the six largest economies in ASEAN this year and the following ones. The research firm pointed to “fresh winds” in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors as emerging drivers, alongside traditional growth pillars like manufacturing, exports, consumption, and trade.

While the outlook for 2024 remains optimistic, achieving GDP growth above 7% will require substantial effort.

In a recent conversation with the press, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong highlighted the favourable state of the country’s export markets. A little extra effort could yield further growth, he said, adding that despite a global downturn in investment, foreign capital inflows in Vietnam have remained robust, significantly contributing to the year's overall economic growth.

Phuong commended the resurgence of domestic investment, evidenced by the increasing number of newly registered businesses, a strong indicator of confidence within the business community regarding local economic prospects.

According to him, a bright spot in tourism has also emerged, with over 1.5 million international visitors arriving in November alone. If efforts in December bring in an additional 2 million visitors, the annual target of 18 million international arrivals is within reach.

Public investment disbursement has proven to be another critical growth driver. If the goal of achieving 95% disbursement of the allocated VND670 trillion for 2024 is met, it would serve as a substantial boost to the country’s economic expansion.