Global coffee production to surge on Vietnam, Indonesia’s rebounding output

World coffee production is expected to reach 174.9 million 60-kg bags, marking a substantial increase of 6.9 million bags compared to the previous crop. However, rising consumption means ending stocks are projected to continue declining.

Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, is anticipated to boost its production by 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million bags, though this remains below the 2021-22 record crop. Bean exports are forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million on higher available supplies.

Indonesia combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to rebound nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million. Robusta output is expected to recover 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million on favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java where approximately 75% is grown.

Arabica production is seen rising slightly to 1.4 million bags. Elevated output is expected to translate to exports gaining 2.2 million bags to 6.5 million.

Meanwhile, Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer, is projected to see an increase of 100,000 bags to 66.4 million bags in the 2024-25 crop. The country's Arabica production is forecast 500,000 bags higher to 45.4 million, while Robusta production is forecast to decline by 400,000 bags to 21 million bags.

The USDA notes that drought and high temperatures during the fruit development have caused the two varieties’ yields to fall below initial projections. With nearly flat output, coffee bean exports are forecast to drop 2.6 million bags to 40.5 million due primarily to last year’s inventory drawdown, which lowered total supplies.

World exports are forecast modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset reduced shipments from Brazil. Global consumption is expected to rise 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million, with the largest gains in the EU, the US, and China. Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million.