Vietnam’s 2024 rice exports likely to break the 2023 record

This is largely due to strong demand from Vietnam’s traditional markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and China. The Philippines’ rice demand remains high, with imports projected to reach between 3.5 and 3.8 million tonnes from Vietnam. Similarly, Indonesia is increasing its rice purchases to maintain food security amidst domestic shortages.

Statistics show Vietnam’s rice prices have also hit historic highs this year, averaging around US$630 per tonne. Some European markets even imported Vietnamese rice at a price of more than US$800 per tonne in some cases.

To capitalize on global supply shortages caused by climate change and the El Nino phenomenon, which have reduced rice yields in many countries, Vietnam is expanding its export markets to regions such as the Middle East and Africa.

To support this growth, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam is enhancing support for exporters and managing supply-demand balance. It has proposed establishing a National Rice Council to safeguard domestic food security while boosting exports.

According to recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam(MARD), rice exports in October 2024 hit an estimated 800,000 tonnes, bringing in US$505 million. The October amount raised 10-month exports this year to approximately 7.8 million tonnes, generating around US$4.86 billion. These figures mark a 10.2% increase in volume and a 23.4% rise in value compared to the same period in 2023.

The average export price of Vietnamese rice over these ten months was estimated at US$626.2 per tonne, up 12% year-on-year. Notably, as of the end of October 2024, Vietnam maintained its dominant position in the Philippines, supplying nearly 80% of that country’s imported rice. This strong performance in the Philippines highlights Vietnam’s expanding influence in key export markets, driven by competitive pricing and high demand.

“In 2023, Vietnam exported 8.13 million tonnes of rice. With the export growth observed over the past ten months and domestic production capacity, we are on track to exceed 8 million tonnes of rice exports in 2024,” said Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien.

Although India recently resumed rice exports, which has impacted prices for 5% broken rice, he said Vietnam has managed to sustain relatively stable prices in the high-quality rice segment.

Experts noted that while rice prices remain favourable for Vietnamese exporters, it is essential for businesses to consistently maintain quality across shipments, alongside preserving Vietnam’s reputation, avoiding price-cutting tactics, and preventing a negative impact on the broader rice export industry.

Agricultural expert Hoang Trong Thuy added that rice exports are expected to remain a bright spot for Vietnam’s economy through the end of the year. He advised exporters to stay informed on market trends and consumer preferences to identify niche markets.

According to projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam is anticipated to achieve a record rice export volume of 8.6 million tonnes in 2024. However, on the import side, it is expected to be the world’s third-largest rice importer, with an anticipated import volume of 2.9 million tonnes, following only Indonesia and the Philippines.