Hot-rolled steel imports to Vietnam skyrocket, China dominates market

According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, 1.2 million tons of HRC steel were imported into Vietnam in September, marking a 34% increase compared to August and amounting to 220% of domestic production (568,000 tons).

Cumulatively, in the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam imported nearly 8.8 million tons of HRC, a 26% increase compared to the same period in 2023, and 171% of domestic production. Of this, 72% (6.3 million tons) was imported from China. The volume of HRC imported from China in the first nine months of 2024 has already surpassed the total imported in all of 2023.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption of hot-rolled steel by Vietnamese manufacturers only reached 5.1 million tons.

China dominates Vietnam's HRC imports primarily due to lower prices, ranging from US$30 to US$70 less per ton than other markets, depending on the product. This price gap stems from China’s ongoing steel surplus crisis, with reduced domestic demand forcing Chinese manufacturers to boost exports at lower prices to clear excess inventory, affecting the global steel industry.

The concerning issue is that HRC imports continue to pour into Vietnam despite the ongoing anti-dumping investigation. As a result, trade defense experts argue that the Ministry of Industry and Trade needs to expedite the investigation to protect domestic production.

Commenting on the effectiveness of trade defense measures for the steel industry, Dinh Quoc Thai, Secretary General of the Vietnam Steel Association, emphasized that steel is a highly competitive sector, but global oversupply often leads foreign companies to dump products to resolve inventory issues, especially when their domestic markets are struggling.

For this reason, steel is one of the industries with the most trade defense investigations, not only in Vietnam but also globally.

In recent years, trade defense measures have allowed Vietnam's steel industry to develop and compete fairly with imports in the domestic market. Moreover, the industry has built a complete value chain from hot-rolled steel to cold-rolled steel and coated steel, making it capable of expanding exports to other markets.

On July 26, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an investigation into the application of anti-dumping (AD) measures on certain HRC steel products originating from China and India. The investigation is being conducted under the Foreign Trade Management Law and the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement.

The products under investigation include certain hot-rolled steel, both alloy and non-alloy, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling, with thicknesses ranging from 1.2 to 25.4mm and widths not exceeding 1,880mm. These products may or may not have an oil coating, and their carbon content is below 0.6% by weight.

According to the Foreign Trade Management Law and Decree 10/2018/ND-CP, based on the preliminary investigation results, the investigating authority may recommend that the Minister of Industry and Trade impose temporary anti-dumping duties. The temporary AD duty shall not exceed the dumping margin determined in the preliminary investigation.

Countries in the region, such as Thailand and Indonesia, have already implemented trade defense measures on Chinese HRC steel. The production capacity in Thailand and Indonesia only meets 43% and 65% of domestic demand, respectively, and both countries have had anti-dumping duties in place since 2019.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Ministry of Trade recently concluded its anti-dumping investigation on HRC imports from China, India, Japan, and Russia.

In the Official Gazette published on October 11, 2024, decisions were announced in line with Notice No. 2023/31 regarding "Prevention of Unfair Competition in Imports." The investigation covered various HRC steel products under tariff codes 7208, 7211, 7212, and 7225. The decisions include imposing anti-dumping duties to protect domestic producers from products originating from China, India, Japan, and Russia.