Three largest coffee import markets of Vietnam

The Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) reported that during the past seven months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached estimated 964 thousand tons, worth nearly US$3.54 billion, down 13.8% in volume, but up 30.9% in value over the same period from last year.

In July alone, coffee exports were estimated at more than 70,000 tons, down 35% on-year and almost unchanged from May 2024.

In the first months of 2024, coffee import turnover of many major markets such as the EU, the US, Canada, Japan, and China all enjoyed growth due to growing demand and high prices.

According to the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), the EU's coffee imports from Vietnam recorded a high increase of 71.5% to more than 1 billion EUR (equivalent to US$1.1 billion).

Vietnam's coffee market share in the EU's total import turnover from the extra-bloc market increased sharply, from 16.1% during the first 5 months of 2023 to 20.35% in the same period of this year.

Statistics from the US International Trade Commission indicated that the US imported US$226 million worth of coffee from Vietnam, up 31.1% over last year’s corresponding period.

Vietnam's coffee market share in the total US import turnover accounted for 6.62% during the past five months of 2024, higher than the market share of 5.26% from Jan-May last year.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) said that in the 2023-2024 crop, Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022-2023 crop.

Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop is likely to endure a continued fall due to unfavorable weather factors. Thus, if not counting the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tons left for exports from now until September.

The Import-Export Department believes that the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit from price. In July, coffee export prices maintained their upward momentum, reaching US$4,844 per ton, up 5% compared to June and double that of the same period last year.

According to Bloomberg, global robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world may face a shortage of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) of robusta coffee by 2040. In addition, world coffee prices are still supported by growing demand from European buyers before the provisions of the EUDR anti-deforestation law come into effect.

The progress of the coffee harvest in Brazil is really putting downward pressure on coffee prices on the world market.

Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 81% complete as of July 23, faster than the 74% at the same time last year and faster than the five-year average of 77%.

However, world coffee prices still increased thanks to information that coffee supplies from Mexico and Central America began to be tightened, earlier in the 12-month export cycle than last year.

Some industry experts also predicted that coffee prices will continue to increase until mid-2025 due to a shortage of supply from major growing regions. Coffee exports are looking forward to the new harvest season and it is forecast that coffee exports for the whole year of 2024 could set a record of  US$ 5.5 - 6 billion.