ADB raises 2024 growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.2%

In a report released on July 17, the ADB forecast that developing Asia that comprises 45 economies in the Asia-Pacific would secure growth of 5.0% this year, just 0.1% higher than its April projection. The growth forecast is still 0.1% lower than the actual rate the region recorded last year.

This financial institution also lifted Vietnam’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 6.2%, higher than the 6% forecast the bank made in April.

The bank’s flagship annual economic publication noted that resilient domestic demand and strong export growth, especially for electronic products, has fueled the region’s rapid growth.

However, the ADB still maintained its growth forecast of 4.9% for the Asian region in 2025, due to concerns about the impact of changes in the world.

“Policy uncertainty related to elections in major economies, particularly the United States, clouds the outlook,” the ADB said, adding potential escalations in conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine also posed challenges.

ADB raised its economic growth forecast for the East Asia region in 2024 to 4.6%, compared to the previous forecast of 4.5% due to the growth in exports of semiconductors and other electronic products, which is fueled by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The growth forecast for Southeast Asia remains at 4.6% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, and for the Pacific at 3.3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.

For China, the bank maintained its growth forecast of 4.8% and 4.5% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, due to concerns about risks in the country’s real estate market that could impact its growth prospects.

Official data released by the General Statistics Office of China on July 15 shows that the country’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, the lowest since the first quarter of 2023.

Headline inflation in developing Asia is now projected to ease further from 3.3% last year to 2.9% this year before rising slightly at 3.0% in 2025.