Sanguine economic growth prospects ahead due to export recovery

Trade surplus estimated at US$8.4 billion in first half

Bui Huy Son, director of the Department of Planning and Finance under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), revealed that the country raked in US$188.97 from exports in the first half of the year, up 13.8% year on year.

Processing and manufacturing took the lead, bringing in US$159.92 billion, or 84.63% of total export turnover and up 13.8% against the same period last year.

Agricultural products continue to represent a bright spot in terms of export growth, with turnover soaring by 18.8% to US$18.21 billion in the reviewed period.

Meanwhile, the fruit and vegetable sector grossed US$3.4 billion, up 28% year on year. Among them, durian, dragon fruit, bananas, and longans all significantly contributed to the sector’s export growth.

According to the MoIT, Vietnam’s total trade turnover was estimated to be at US$369.59 billion, up 16.03% year on year, resulting in US$8.4 billion in trade surplus.

With regard to factors that have caused exports to grow positively, MoIT Deputy Minister Phan Thi Thang pointed out that the signing of numerous free trade agreements (FTA) with more than 60 markets worldwide has served to open up a wealth of opportunities for local businesses as they seek to promote exports and take full advantage of tariff incentives.

Currently, the MoIT has put in place drastic solutions to facilitate production and develop stable supply sources for export and the domestic market alongside ensuring energy security.

Exports exert a significant impact on economic growth

According to the World Bank’s statistics, the Vietnamese export value of goods and services is equivalent to 94% of GDP, ranking 14th globally.

Of the figure, the export of commodities accounts for up to 82% of GDP, while service exports, mainly tourism and transportation services, make up 12% of GDP.

Nguyen Duc Hung Linh, directory of Think Future Consultancy, analysed that Vietnam secured GDP growth of over 7% in 2018-2019, the highest level recorded in 10 years, and its exports also surged by 13.2% and 8.4%, respectively.

In 2023, when exports fell by 4.6%, GDP growth reached only 5%. However, the export sector has recorded plenty of positive signs.

Experts outlined that improved purchasing power in developed countries has had a clear impact on the Vietnamese economy.

Vietnamese exports during the five-month period increased by 15.2%, with exports to the US, the EU, the Republic of Korea, and Japan all rebounding by 22.3%, 16.1%, 10.9%, and 3.2% respectively.

With positive signs seen in developed markets, there are bright prospects ahead for Vietnamese exports in the second half of the year and moving into 2025.

However, apart from sanguine signs, economists predicted that import and export activities will continue to depend on a number of markets, type of products, and the foreign-invested sector moving forward.

Moreover, several key export products to major markets such as the EU and the US continue to face pressure from trade defence investigations and technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transformation.