Lam phat chong nhu the nao

Tags: TS Tran Xuan Gia, Bo truong Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu, cac bien phap chong lam phat, dau tu khong hieu qua, nhu the nao, doi mat voi, nguoi tham gia, mat can doi, tang truong, chung ta, giai phap, luong tang, nha nuoc, nguyen nhan, den


Gia tang dang la de tai nong hoi. Chinh phu co nhung bien phap cap bach doi pho tinh hinh. De nguoi dan co niem tin lam phat khong am anh trong tuong lai, TS gap go cac chuyen gia de phan tich, danh gia lam phat hien tai duoi nhieu goc canh ngo hau tim cau tra loi: dau la giai phap tam thoi, dau la giai phap tron goi?

TS Tran Xuan Gia, nguyen truong Ban nghien cuu cua Thu tuong:

De cao hon nua chat luong tang truong

Lam phat chong nhu the nao
La nguoi tham gia truc tiep thuc hien cac bien phap chong lam phat thoi ky lam phat len toi gan 900%/nam truoc day, TS Tran Xuan Gia - nguyen Truong ban Nghien cuu cua Thu tuong, nguyen Bo truong Bo Ke hoach va dau tu - chia se nhung kinh nghiem trong nhan dinh va doi mat voi lam phat lan nay:

>> Lam phat: khong the xem thuong" boBDY="

Thu Bay, 18/08/2007, 05:02 (GMT+7)
TT - Thi truong tai chinh the gioi van tuot doc manh nha tu hien tuong cac thi truong chung khoan tren the gioi gan nhu dong loat suy giam keo dai va dac biet giam manh vao cuoi tuan le truoc. Nguyen nhan co nhieu, nhung khoi mao lai la nhung khoan cho vay kho doi ton tai trong thi truong dia oc dang e am o My - uoc khoang 300 ti USD hoac hon nua.
" boCSSBDY="dvbdy1" boCSSHDR="dvhdr1" IEbugfix="false" fixX="NaN" fixY="NaN" absX="NaN" absY="NaN" offY="10" offX="10" fade="false" fadespeed="0.04" delay="0" windowLock="true">Lam phat: khong the xem thuong

- Nam nay nhap sieu se kha cao, nhap sieu cung co anh huong den lam phat. Toi thu hoach duoc nhieu bai hoc ve cac bien phap chong lam phat, dac biet la cac bien phap that bai. Tat nhien, bay gio khac xa ngay xua. Nhung co mot cau chuyen toi nho mai trong dau. Luc bay gio ta cu nghi ta ngheo, ta thieu nen gia tang, lam phat. Song thuc te lam phat khong phai vi thieu hang hoa, vi ngheo.

Mot trong nhung bai hoc thanh cong trong chong lam phat phi ma luc bay gio la thuc hien nghiem ngat chu truong “Ngan sach thu lay ma chi. Ngan hang vay lay ma cho vay”. Noi nhu vay co nghia la truoc do chung ta da su dung may in tien de bu dap cac mat can doi trong thu chi ngan sach, trong tin dung, ma dieu nay chang khac nao “uong thuoc doc trong luc khat nuoc”. Bai hoc ay den nay khong phai khong con gia tri.

Gio chung ta thuan loi hon xua nhieu. Noi lam phat do gia hang hoa, dau mo the gioi tang; do nhu cau va suc mua trong nuoc tang (phai hieu la nhu cau co kha nang thanh toan); do thien tai dich benh... deu dung ca, nhung do chi la be noi, con thuc chat neu chung ta khong do them tien ra, nhieu hon muc can thiet thi cung khong lam tang gia tren dien rong.

Tri lam phat phai tap trung, “diem dung huyet”

+ Thua ong, lam phat o VN thuong co nguyen nhan giong nhau, la do luong tien Nha nuoc do ra qua lon. Nhung cach nhan dinh va giai phap cua cac chuyen gia lai thuong rat khac nhau?

- Truoc day chung ta chong lam phat, cac chuyen gia duoc tap hop lai, moi nguoi cung neu tat ca nguyen nhan gay lam phat. Nhung trong so vo van nguyen nhan duoc neu ra ay nguyen nhan nao cung co ve dung. Vi vay, cau hoi duoc dua ra: dau la nguyen nhan chinh? Ket qua chong lam phat thanh cong cho thay da so quan diem da nhin nhan khong dung. Viec dat ra cau hoi dau la nguyen nhan chinh cua lam phat la rat can de tap trung cac giai phap vao day, vi khong du suc de khac phuc cung luc tat ca nguyen nhan va neu thuc hien cac giai phap mot cach dan trai thi khong the chong duoc lam phat.

Hien chung ta giam lam phat bang nhieu bien phap, mot trong nhung bien phap la giam thue nhap khau, tong gia tri thue giam di khoang 1.000 ti. Theo toi, chi dua vao so tien nay thi khong dang la bao so voi tong luong thanh toan toan xa hoi. Do la chua ke neu thuc hien khong tot thi su “hi sinh” nay cua ngan sach se tro nen vo nghia, khong lam gia hang tieu dung giam xuong ma chi lam tang loi nhuan cho cac nha san xuat, cac nha nhap khau. Toi cho rang phai co giai phap dong bo, nhung nen xac dinh ro trong tam, trong diem. Phai tim dung huyet, danh vao day hieu qua moi cao duoc.

+ Cong cu lai suat rat quan trong trong chong lam phat. Nhung lai suat chung ta da de no len cao roi. Lieu co nen su dung cong cu nay trong thoi gian toi?

- Muon tra loi nen dung cong cu lai suat hay khong thi phai tra loi mot cau hoi khac: lieu ta da nen giam dau tu, xay dung may thang cuoi nam den muc do nao do hay khong? Chong lam phat phai giam giai ngan trong dau tu xay dung. Con neu tiep tuc tang voi muc do cao trong dau tu xay dung thi van con nhieu co hoi tang tin dung.

Trong nam 2007, co nhieu nguon von sau thang dau nam ta giai ngan rat thap, neu may thang cuoi nam khong day manh thi se kho hoan thanh chi tieu. Nen trong boi canh hien nay, chung ta nen xu ly mot cach can bang mau thuan trong ba muc tieu dat ra: toc do tang truong phai dat 8,5%, day manh giai ngan va chong lam phat trong cung mot chuong trinh hanh dong cua Chinh phu. Boi ba muc tieu nay khong phai luc nao cung thuan nhau, doi khi la di nguoc, muon duoc cai nay phai han che cai kia.

+ Tang lai suat, nhieu nguoi noi khong muon lam vi se lam tang gia tri cac cong trinh, gay kho khan cho chu dau tu chu khong han vi ngai no anh huong den toc do tang truong?

- Chung ta can cong bang trong viec danh gia cac giai phap. Neu Bo Tai chinh noi phat hanh trai phieu Chinh phu de thu hut tien ve thi cung phai xem do la giai phap ton kem den dau. Neu xay dung mot cong trinh bang trai phieu, sau nam nam no dat hon so voi tien dau tu truc tiep tu ngan sach 35-40%. Khi chung ta can cong trinh som moi phai dung giai phap dat do nay. Con neu vay tien ve de vao kho bac roi cu the chiu lai thi rat khong kinh te. Don thuan muon thu tien ve ma dung bien phap nay thi do la sai lam. Giam cung tien nen de ngan hang lam se hieu qua hon va dung chuc nang.

Ra soat lai dau tu nha nuoc, khong nen xay tru so, sam xe cong

+ Nhu vay theo ong, ngoai nhung bien phap truoc mat da biet, chung ta can bien phap lau dai nao nua khong?

- Lich su cua chung ta, chong lam phat hieu qua nhat la kim ham chi tieu cua Nha nuoc, gom ca chi tieu cho dau tu, nhat la dau tu khong hieu qua. Boi dau tu khong hieu qua la cho tien ra ma khong nhan hang quay tro lai. Sua dau tu khong hieu qua phai sua tu co cau dau tu. Dac biet can quan tam dau tu nha nuoc, nhat la trong dieu kien phan cap quan ly dau tu cho dia phuong mot cach toan dien nhu hien nay. Neu khong kiem soat duoc dau tu nha nuoc tai dia phuong se rat kho kiem soat lam phat, hoac kiem soat duoc se phai tra gia dat.

Phan cap trong quan ly dau tu la can thiet. Nhung phan cap phai co chuan bi, co co che trach nhiem va co che giam sat. Truoc khi phan cap phai qui hoach tot da. Rieng qui hoach, theo toi, khong the phan cap tran lan. Nha nuoc phai xem trong ca nuoc can bao nhieu cang, bao nhieu san bay, bao nhieu con duong va lam o dau, lam bao gio cho co hieu qua. Chu de dia phuong tu qui hoach, tu xay se de dan den dau tu dan trai, kem hieu qua. Dau tu kem hieu qua khong dua den hau qua ngay nhung mot thoi gian sau, khi no den han phai tra thi se tao ra mot suc ep rat lon len nen kinh te, no cung la tien de cua lam phat.

+ De giam cung ung tien, chong lam phat, can Nha nuoc tiet kiem chi truoc het. Truoc mat can tranh nhung cong trinh ky niem, viec xay tru so, sam xe cong tren toan quoc?

- Mot trong nhung giai phap trong thoi ky lam phat, nham mat cung biet la phai giam dau tu cua Nha nuoc, giam chi tieu cua Chinh phu. Chi tieu cua Chinh phu gom chi tieu cho dau tu va cac chi tieu khac. Neu co cai moc xich luan quan thi mat xich dau tien can chat la o day. Tuy muc do, neu thay can thiet, ngay ca nhung cong trinh dau tu hieu qua nhung chua that can thiet cung nen tam dung, khong trien khai. Phai du bao som, co giai phap kip thoi. Boi cac giai phap chong lam phat, co cai dem lai hieu qua nhanh nhung da so deu can co thoi gian moi thay hieu ung. Muon nhung nam toi phat trien on dinh, khong xay ra lam phat thi phai co giai phap ngan chan ngay tu bay gio.

Bai hoc: chat luong tang truong

+ Lam phat lan nay dem lai cho chung ta kinh nghiem khong nen coi trong qua con so tang truong ma nen dinh huong phat trien kinh te tren co so chi tieu can co hon?

- Dieu nay da duoc dat ra kha som. Tang truong phai gan lien chat luong, voi tang truong ben vung. Chat luong tang truong quyet dinh so luong tang truong, chu khong phai nguoc lai. Lam phat chi la bieu hien mat can doi trong dieu tiet vi mo. Phai de cao hon nua tam quan trong cua chat luong tang truong va coi do la mot thanh tich con cao hon so luong tang truong.

+ Lam phat co phai bieu hien cua chat luong tang truong kem khong, thua ong?

- Rat dung. Neu tang truong ben vung thi tang truong hom nay phai la tien de vung chac cho tang truong hom sau. Gio chung ta dang song trong nam 2007, thuc chat dang chuan bi cac tien de cho sau 2010 phat trien the nao. Neu nhung bien phap bay gio khong hop ly co the ta van tang truong tot den 2010 nhung sau do se gap kho khan.

+ De de cao chat luong tang truong hoi kho vi con lien quan den thanh tich. Nhung lieu co the so sanh loi ich cua dat nuoc khi tang truong 9%, lam phat 8% voi tang truong chi 6-7%, lam phat 3-4%/nam?

- Chua nen voi so sanh hai muc do tren boi neu lam phat 8% song cac cong cu cua ta khong bi bi, co the su dung duoc bat cu luc nao de xu ly lam phat thi lam phat trong chung muc nao do se gop phan vao tang truong. Muon the, tang truong phai dam bao kiem soat duoc can doi vi mo, phai luon bao dam cac can doi vi mo on dinh.

Lam phat la mot yeu to kich thich tang truong nhung neu su dung khong tot thi day la con dao hai luoi, no co the vo hieu kha nang tang truong, gay bat on va som muon cung se dan den kim ham tang truong, chua noi den phat trien. Mot nuoc nhu chung ta, thoi ky kho khan phai chap nhan lam phat cao hon tang truong de tao cu hich phat trien. Nhung ve lau dai, dut khoat lam phat phai thap hon tang truong moi dam bao on dinh.

+ Quan ly kinh te khong nen de cac cong cu dieu tiet khi can dung den deu thay kho, dat duoc muc dich thi phai hy sinh qua nhieu thu?

- Quan ly dat nuoc phai co du phong. De mat can doi, cac cong cu bi giam hieu qua se mat rat nhieu cong suc va kim ham phat trien ghe gom. Ta dang o trong moi truong kinh te the gioi bien dong. Thien tai dich benh voi moi truong bi xuong cap nghiem trong the nay thi ta se phai doi dien thuong xuyen voi khong it kho khan. Nen khong co du phong, den khi the gioi co bien dong, ta de bi dong va phai chiu thiet hai cao hon muc dang ra phai nhan.

CAM VAN KINH thuc hien

Viet Bao

Tìm hiểu: TS Tran Xuan Gia, Bo truong Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu, cac bien phap chong lam phat, dau tu khong hieu qua, nhu the nao, doi mat voi, nguoi tham gia, mat can doi, tang truong, chung ta, giai phap, luong tang, nha nuoc, nguyen nhan, den

Xem Bản Tiếng Việt Có Dấu: Lạm phát - chống như thế nào?

Ban co the doc ban tieng Viet co dau cua bai viet Lạm phát - chống như thế nào? bang cach nhan chuot vao duong dan tren.

Lien he ve tin Lam phat chong nhu the nao

Nhan xet, hay lien he ve tin Lam phat chong nhu the nao co the gui bang duong dan o duoi. Ban nen gui kem tieu de bai viet Lam phat chong nhu the nao de lam tham khao. Bai viet nay thuoc chuyen de Tin xa hoi trong chuyen muc Xa hoi.

Cac tin khac:

Xem tiep ... Tin xa hoi
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