Can mo phong can trong truoc khi phan luong giao thong

TT - Nhan doc bai bao "Ngay dau tien phan luong tai TP.HCM: Ket xe kinh khung!", toi xin dong gop cac y kien sau day:

1. Viec phan luong giao thong khong the lam theo kieu "thu va sai" (trials and errors). Ong Nguyen Vinh Ninh - pho giam doc Khu Quan ly giao thong do thi so 1 - da phat bieu : "So Giao thong cong chinh dang tiep tuc theo doi tinh hinh phan luong de tung buoc co nhung dieu chinh hop ly. ... Giao Cong ty Chieu sang cong cong tiep tuc dieu chinh den tin hieu tai cac giao lo bang tay de chon duoc chu ky den phu hop".

Phat bieu nay da boc lo ro cach lam hien nay trong phan luong la "thu va sai" dua tren "nguoi that va xe co that". Truoc tien, viec phan luong giao thong phai duoc thu nghiem tren may tinh ma dan chuyen mon goi la "mo phong (simulation)".

Thuc hien mo phong tren may tinh se giup chung ta phong tranh tinh huong: toi uu hoa cuc bo nhung khong toi uu hoa tong the (khong ket xe duong Nguyen Kiem, nhung ket xe cac tuyen khac ma cuoi cung van khong giai quyet duoc nan ket xe cho 1 khu vuc nao do), se it ton kem tai san xa hoi hon la thu nghiem bang "nguoi that, xe co that" nhu So giao thong dang thuc hien hien nay.

2/ De thuc hien mo phong trong phan luong giao thong can phai dam bao 2 dieu kien:

+ Quan trac de dinh luong so luong tung loai xe theo tung thoi diem trong ngay, theo mua, ung xu cua nguoi tham gia giao thong, ... se la nhung bien dau vao (inputs) cho qua trinh mo phong.

+ Phan mem thuc hien mo phong. Truoc mat co the de dang tai cac phan mem chuyen ve mo phong giao thong (trial version) tu website cua cac truong dai hoc noi tieng tren the gioi ma co dao tao nganh ky thuat giao thong (transportation Engineering) nhu Purdue University, MIT, …v.v. Ve lau dai nen mua phan mem cua ho hoac dat hang cac truong dai hoc Viet nam, cac cong ty phan mem VN san xuat phan mem tuong tu.

Sau khi co du cac dieu kien tren, tien hanh chay mo phong theo nhieu phuong an khac nhau. Chung ta co the nhan ra duoc phuong an tot nhat. Tat nhien cai quan trong van la con nguoi. Viec quyet dinh dua kich ban (scenario) nao vao chay mo phong chinh la mot nghe thuat va no doi hoi trinh do, kinh nghiem cung nhu su sang tao cua nguoi can bo ky thuat.

Chung ta dang song o the ky 21, xin dung su dung phuong phap “thu va sai” trong phan luong giao thong bang “nguoi that, xe co that”. Lang phi lam! Se co nguoi cho rang lan truoc chung ta da thue cong ty nuoc ngoai phan luong khu vuc quang truong Me Minh (Quan 1). Cong ty nuoc ngoai do cung chay mo phong ma van ket xe sau phan luong, vi vay "co chay mo phong cung khong tac dung!". Toi xin nhac lai: "mo phong chinh xac la mo phong", phan mem may tinh chi lam theo nhung gi ma con nguoi da tao ra va van hanh mo phong theo du lieu dau vao (input data) do con nguoi dua vao.

Mot ket qua mo phong se phu hop voi thuc te khi ma du lieu dau vao la duoc thu thap can trong tu thuc te cong voi mot phan mem phu hop. Do do, thu thap du lieu de dua vao phan mem chay mo phong la quan trong.

Lanh dao So giao thong TP.HCM cung nen tham khao y kien cac chuyen gia tot nghiep chuyen nganh Ky thuat giao thong o cac truong dai hoc lon nhu Dai hoc Bach Khoa TP.HCM de chon lua phan mem mo phong giao thong phu hop. Co the cac gop y cua toi se chang den tay cac lanh dao So giao thong TP.HCM nhung voi trach nhiem toi van viet nhung dong nay de lam tron trach nhiem cua 1 cong dan Viet nam dang du hoc noi xu nguoi.

LUU TRUONG VAN

(Ph.D student Interdisciplinary Program of Construction Engineering & Management Department of Civil and Construction Engineering Pukyong National University (PKNU), Korea.)

Phan luong giao thong la mot trong nhung bien phap hop ly de giam un tac giao thong, tuy nhien viec phan luong theo y kien chu quan cua nganh giao thong nhu vua qua thi thanh cong cung co ma that bai thi cung rat nhieu. Nen chang de tranh su lang phi va chu quan, nganh giao thong nen tham khao y kien cua nhung nguoi tham gia luu thong truoc khi dua ra quyet dinh cuoi cung ? Hinh thuc lay y kien co the la thong qua bao dai, Internet, truyen hinh chang han ?

LE QUOC TRI

Phan luong mot chieu cho duong Nguyen Kiem thi chac chan luong xe tu Go Vap se do vao duong Hoang Minh Giam va khuc co chai Dao Duy Anh - Ho Van Hue. Cho du phan luong duong Dao Duy Anh va Ho Van Hue thanh mot chieu cung se khong tai noi luu luong xe qua lon tu Go Vap do ve.

Tuong tu, duong Pham Ngu Lao cung se ganh mot luong xe rat lon do ve Go Vap vao buoi chieu thi lieu ach tac khong xay ra chang? Theo toi, co le nen phan luong duong mot chieu theo thoi gian trong ngay: buoi sang luong xe tu Go Vap vao rat lon nen doan Nguyen Kiem tu nga 6 Nguyen Oanh den nga 5 Nguyen Thai Son phan luong mot chieu huong vao thanh pho. Duong Pham Ngu Lao phan luong mot chieu huong ra Go Vap. Buoi chieu thi phan luong nguoc lai cho 2 tuyen duong tren. Nhu vay se do gay ach tac do luong xe lon luon duoc luu thong tren tuyen duong rong.

Nhiem vu con lai la phan cong CSGT chot tai dau cac tuyen duong nay de huong dan cho nguoi luu thong, hoac treo bang ron huong dan. Cac tuyen duong khac cung nen xem xet lai luu luong giao thong de phan luong theo buoi nhu tren. Sau nay ben Giao thong co the tao ra mot loai bang hieu qui dinh luong luu thong theo gio.

HOANG KHA

Toi rat hay di lai tren doan Dao Duy Anh nen biet nga ba Hoang Minh Giam - Dao Duy anh la doan duong rat nho va kho queo. O nga 3 nay co den tin hieu giao thong nhung luc truoc hau nhu khong dung den vi khuc duong do rat thoang nay luong xe dong len gap may lan, luong nguoi muon di thang Hoang Minh giam cung phai dung cho den xanh do, di huong Nguyen Kiem cung phai dung cho roi di huong Hoang Van Thu cung vay, gay ra canh ket cung.

Theo toi nguyen nhan ket cot loi la do duong Nguyen Kiem, khuc Quan Phu Nhuan qua nho trong khi luong xe luu thong lai qua lon, neu khong mo rong thi du co phan luong co nao cung vay thoi.

MOT BAN DOC

Duong Nguyen Kiem phai duoc mo rong, giai toa cac ki - ot doc theo bo rao cong vien Gia Dinh moi mong giam ket xe. Moi bien phap chap va khac deu that bai vi day la con duong xung yeu , gan nhu doc dao , tu nga tu Phu Nhuan sang nga ba Chu Ia, hai diem nay luon luon ket xe bat ke gio nao ngay nao.

VI TRUNG