Mot trong nhung cuoc tranh luan nay lua nhat trong gioi dau tu la lieu dau tu vao nhung cong ty lon nhat, dan dau thi truong hay nhung cong ty nho hon nhung tang truong nhanh thi tot hon? Lich su cua nhung tranh luan nay cung kinh dien khong kem nhung phan dinh muon thuo giua rui ro va loi nhuan trong dau tu.
“Voi khong phi nuoc dai” Ban da bao gio thay mot chu voi “phi nuoc dai” chua? Chac han la chua roi, hinh anh nhung chu voi nang ne di chuyen cham chap, thong tha co ve nhu quen thuoc hon. Trong dau tu, nguoi ta thuong noi “voi khong phi nuoc dai” voi ngu y rang, cac cong ty lon rat kho co the tang truong voi toc do phi ma. Quan diem nay cho rang, neu muon thang lon tren TTCK, nha dau tu nen tim den cac loai co phieu tang truong cua nhung cong ty nho, thay vi co phieu “an chac mac ben” cua cac “ong voi”. The nao la cong ty quy mo nho? Truoc tien, co the dua vao tieu chi quy mo von hoa thi truong. Duong nhien, ban than chi tieu von hoa thi truong cung khong phai la mot chi tieu cung nhac va bat bien. Gia su, gia co phieu cua mot cong ty nao do bong nhien tang 30%, thi chi sau mot dem, mot cong ty co the tu quy mo nho tro thanh mot cong ty quy mo vua, cho du doanh so, thu nhap khong co gi thay doi. Mot so nha phan tich cho rang, quy mo von hoa thi truong khong han la mot thuoc do tot de danh gia xem mot cong ty la lon hay nho. Mot cong ty kinh doanh truc tuyen co the co quy mo von hoa thi truong 500 trieu USD, nhung neu doanh so cua no chi dat 193.000 USD va thua lo dam dia, lieu no co thuc su la mot cong ty lon hay khong? Theo quan diem nay, de xac dinh the nao la cong ty nho hay tam quen di chi tieu quy mo von hoa thi truong va thay vao do, tap trung vao cac dac diem thuong gan voi nhung cong ty loai nay, do la: thieu vang cac hoat dong nghien cuu; co phieu co muc chenh lech gia ban - mua rat rong; tinh thanh khoan thap. Day co ve nhu la mot cach nhin kha tieu cuc nhung lai thuc te ve cac cong ty quy mo nho. Tai sao lai chon cong ty nho? - Kha nang dem lai ty suat loi nhuan cao. Lua chon dung cac cong ty nho de dau tu co the dem lai ty suat loi nhuan cao gap nhieu lan thi truong. Tang gap 3 lan doanh thu va loi nhuan voi mot cong ty nho de dang hon nhieu so voi mot cong ty tam co. - De phan tich. Cac cong ty nho bao gio cung de phan tich hon, buc tranh tong the de nam bat hon. Se co it co hoi cho nhung gian lan ve mat so sach ke toan, nhat la doi voi cong ty co hoat dong don gian, o mot quoc gia duy nhat thi cung khong co cho cho nhung man “phu phep” thong qua su danh doi ty gia. - Khong duoc gioi dau tu chuyen nghiep de y. Cac to chuc dau tu thuong huong su tap trung nghien cuu cua ho vao nhung cong ty co quy mo lon, tu 500 trieu USD tro len. Cac khach hang cua ho thuong giao dich voi khoi luong lon, dieu khong the lam duoc voi mot cong ty nho va ban than cac quy bao gio cung thich so huu cac co phieu de mua di ban lai. Vi ly do nay ma cac cong ty nho thuong it duoc ngo ngang toi, bo ngo co hoi cho cac nha dau tu ca nhan. Tuy nhien, kha nang dem lai loi nhuan cao bao gio cung di kem voi rui ro cao. Gia co phieu cua cac cong ty nho thuong bien dong rat manh. Su chiem linh thi truong cua cac nha dau tu co to chuc va su ua chuong ma ho danh cho cac cong ty lon cung dong nghia voi nhu cau doi voi co phieu cua cac cong ty nho la khong cao. Do do, nhin chung cac co phieu nho thuong bi danh gia thap hon binh quan thi truong va tinh thanh khoan thuong kem hon. Co phieu tang truong co nhat thiet phai la co phieu nho? Lat nguoc lai van de tren, lieu nhung con so phat trien kieu nhu 100%/nam chi co o nhung cong ty nho? Khong han vay, vi co phieu cua Coca Cola da tang gia len 4 lan trong giai doan 1988 den 1991. Co phieu cua WPP, hang quang cao lon cua Anh cung tang tu 202 bang vao thang 10/1998 len 1.068 bang vao thang 2/2000, toc do tang truong binh quan dat 103,8%/nam. Do vay, cau “voi khong biet phi nuoc dai” nen duoc dieu chinh lai thanh “voi hiem khi phi nuoc dai”. Tuy nhien, co mot dieu ky la la o Viet Nam, hinh nhu “chi voi moi phi nuoc dai”? Chung ta co the thay nhung “voi” nhu FPT, BMC, SJS… rat thuong xuyen xuat hien trong danh muc thong ke nhung co phieu bien dong nhieu nhat. Thuc ra, TTCK Viet Nam con qua non tre, nen ngay ca nhung co phieu duoc menh danh la blue-chip cung chua dat den dang cap de duoc coi la “voi” thuc su. Hon nua, mot phan khong nho nha dau tu Viet Nam van chay theo phong trao, theo tam ly so dong. Se con phai mat mot thoi gian nua de TTCK Viet Nam di vao on dinh, khi ma gia co phieu phan anh tuong doi chinh xac gia tri thuc cua no thi moi co the biet “voi” cua chung ta co the “phi nuoc dai” hay khong. Neu co mot nguyen tac co ban trong dau tu vao co phieu nho thi do la nen tim mua co phieu cua nhung cong ty tot tai nhung muc gia hop ly. The nao la mot cong ty tot? - Quan tri: hay co gang tim hieu chat luong cua doi ngu quan tri cong ty, kinh nghiem hoat dong cua ho trong nganh, co phan nam giu, nhung thanh tich dat duoc va xem ho da bao gio dinh dang vao that bai cua cong ty nao chua. - Vi the canh tranh: DN co ty suat loi nhuan cao hay thap, no bi anh huong nhu the nao truoc su canh tranh gia ca cua cac doi thu? Vi the cua doanh nghiep co duoc bao ve bang loi the canh tranh vung chac khong? - Thanh tich ve doanh thu va loi nhuan: cong ty co doanh thu va loi nhuan tang lien tuc trong 5 nam qua voi muc chi tra co tuc on dinh hay co tinh hinh kinh doanh day bien dong? - Dong tien: mot so doanh nghiep lang phi tien mat, trong khi mot so khac lai rat biet cach su dung. Ly tuong nhat se la mot cong ty biet cach tao ra thay vi chi biet “dot” tien mat. - Trien vong phat trien: hay xem xet quy mo va vi the hien tai cua cong ty tren thi truong cung nhu nhung xu huong tong the va xu huong phat trien ve kinh te, lieu do co phai la mot doanh nghiep co tiem nang khong? No co kha nang tang truong “phi ma” hay khong neu co thoi co va lieu doi ngu quan ly co du nang luc de kiem soat noi muc tang truong nhu vay? Mua co phieu tot voi gia hop ly Tim duoc mot cong ty tang truong chat luong tot khong phai la viec qua kho, van de dang quan tam hon la lam the nao mua duoc co phieu cua nhung cong ty nay o mot muc gia hop ly. Can luu y la ban dang tim kiem mot muc gia hop ly chu khong phai mot muc gia “hoi”, vi co the ban se khong bao gio tim noi mot co phieu de dau tu. Mot trong nhung bi quyet cua Warren Buffet la khong nhat thiet phai dau tu vao nhung cong ty hung manh voi cai gia ngat nguong ma chi can tim nhung cong ty tot voi muc gia vua phai. Vay the nao la “muc gia hop ly”? Tieu chi danh gia o day la ty so P/E. Hay canh giac voi cac cong ty co P/E qua cao (tren 50) vi rui ro gan lien voi cac cong ty nay cung cao tuong ung, va neu cong ty khong thoa man duoc ky vong cua thi truong thi co phieu cua no rat co the se sut gia the tham. Ben canh do, cung khong nen chon nhung cong ty co P/E qua thap (duoi 10). Co the thi truong co nhung thong tin xau ve cong ty nay ma ban khong biet hoac don gian do la mot cong ty cha co gi hap dan voi trien vong ngheo nan. Noi chung, cac nha dau tu co the dung P/E va chi so phai sinh cua no la PEG de quyet dinh hoac tham khao khi lua chon dau tu vao cac cong ty nho. Voi hay … Dau tu vao co phieu tang truong cua cac cong ty nho hay dau tu vao nhung co phieu dau tau tren thi truong? Dieu nay rot cuoc hoan toan phu thuoc vao phong cach dau tu va khau vi rui ro cua moi nguoi, san sang chap nhan muc danh doi loi nhuan - rui ro den dau thi dau tu theo den do. Van biet “voi khong the phi nuoc dai”, nhung khong phai nha dau tu nao cung thich dau tu vao nhung co phieu co kha nang “phi nuoc dai” de tim kiem cam giac manh. (theo Dau tu chung khoan) |
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