Lam phat co kiem soat duoc khong
Tren cac phuong tien thong tin dai chung hoac trong cac cuoc hoi thao trong thoi gian qua, co hai van de dat ra la ta da lam phat hay chua va neu co lam phat thi co nam trong tam kiem soat?
Cau hoi nay duoc dat ra xuat phat tu quan niem ve lam phat. Theo khai niem thong thuong thi lam phat la phat hanh tien vuot qua toc do tang truong kinh te. Con gia ca (gia tieu dung) tang, ngoai nguyen nhan do phat hanh tien, con do cac nguyen nhan khac, nhat la quan he cung-cau, gia ca the gioi. Nhung bieu hien thuc te cua lam phat Day co le la bieu hien thu nhat cua lam phat, boi neu khong lam phat thi co the thang tang, thang giam chu khong theo xu huong tang lien tuc va ngay mot cao len. Bieu hien thu hai la gia da tang lien tuc qua cac thang tu thang 1 den nay. Thang 1 tang 1,1%; thang 2 tang 3.0%; thang 3 tang 0,8%; thang 4 tang 0,5%; thang 5 tang 0,9%; thang 6 tang 0,8%; thang 7 tang 0,5%. Tinh chung thang 7/2004 so voi thang 12/2003, tuc la 7 thang, gia tieu dung da tang 7,7%. Day la toc do tang thuoc loai kha cao, boi vi cao nhat so voi toc do tang cua cung ky trong nhieu nam truoc do. Cung ky 2003 tang 1,8%; cung ky 2002 tang 2,8%; cung ky 2001 giam 0,9%; cung ky 2000 giam 1,5%; cung ky 1999 tang 1,2%; cung ky 1998 tang 5,6%; cung ky 1997 tang 1,3%; cung ky 1996 tang 2,6%; cung ky 1995 tang 11,2%; cung ky 1994 tang 7,3%; cung ky 1993 tang 5,9%. Nhu vay, tinh trong 11 nam thi chi thap hon cung ky nam 1995; neu tinh lien tuc thi cao nhat so voi cung ky trong 8 nam truoc do. Moi qua 7 thang, nhung toc do tang gia tieu dung da cao hon toc do tang ca nam cua nhieu nam qua. Ca nam 2003 tang 3%; ca nam 2002 tang 4%; ca nam 2001 tang 0,8%; ca nam 2000 giam 0,6%; ca nam 1999 tang 0,1%; ca nam 1998 tang 9,2%; ca nam 1997 tang 3,6%; ca nam 1996 tang 4,5%; ca nam 1995 tang 12,7%; ca nam 1994 tang 14,4%; ca nam 1993 tang 5,2%. Nhu vay, trong 11 nam thi 7 thang qua da tang cao hon ca nam cua 8 nam. Cung moi qua 7 thang, nhung toc do tang gia tieu dung da vuot muc tieu tang 4-5% do Quoc hoi de ra cho ca nam 2004. Toc do tang gia tieu dung da cao gan gap doi lai suat huy dong tinh theo ky han 6 thang trong thoi gian tuong ung va con gap nhieu lan hon neu tinh theo ky han 3 thang, 1 thang hay khong ky han va neu tinh tu thang 11, thang 12/2003 thi van cao hon ca ky han 1 nam. Lai thuc da mang dau am - mot dieu trai voi nguyen tac cua co che thi truong. Luong von xa hoi se khong chay vao cac ngan hang thuong mai hoac vao nhung voi toc do thap hon nhieu so voi ra. Thuc te trong 6 thang dau nam 2004, huy dong von cua cac ngan hang thuong mai moi tang khoang 8,28% (bang VND chi tang 6,7%); thap hon toc do tang 9,68% cua cung ky 2002 va 10,5% cua cung ky 2003; thap hon toc do tang du no tin dung trong thoi gian tuong ung (bang USD tang 17,6%, bang VND tang 10,15%). Bieu hien thu ba cua lam phat la toc do tang gia dien ra o hau het cac mat hang tu hang hoa, dich vu tieu dung den nguyen nhien vat lieu dung cho san xuat kinh doanh. Neu toc do tang gia chi dien ra o mot vai mat hang thi do la do quan he cung - cau mat can doi va do chi mang tinh tam thoi, voi ban tay vo hinh cua co che thi truong se dieu tiet de tang cung, giam cau de chuyen sang mua cac hang khac, co nhung mat hang gia tang thi co nhung mat hang khac gia giam. O day, gia hau het cac mat hang deu tang thi nhat dinh co nguyen nhan tu tien te tin dung. Xet trong thoi gian ngan, thi tien vao it hon tien ra (nhu da noi tren). Neu xet trong thoi gian tuong doi dai thi trong nhung nam truoc, de chong thieu phat, da thuc hien chinh sach tien te noi long, lam cho toc do du no cho vay lon hon toc do tang von huy dong, cu the: nam 2002, toc do tang von huy dong la 19,4% thi toc do tang du no cho vay la 22,2%. Nam 2003, toc do tang von huy dong la 22,7% thi toc do tang du no cho vay la 25%. Lam phat co nam trong tam kiem soat? Nhu vay co the noi la lam phat da xay ra. Nhung hien van con mot van de khac dat ra la lam phat co nam trong tam kiem soat? Truoc het, can thong nhat mot quan niem, gia ca la bieu hien bang tien cua gia tri, la tong hoa cua nhieu moi quan he kinh te-xa hoi. No co tinh quy luat, co tinh khach quan nam ngoai y muon chu quan cua con nguoi. Con nguoi chi co the van dung va tac dong de han che tac dong tieu cuc, tan dung cac tac dong tich cuc cua quy luat do. Vi vay, "tam kiem soat" chi mang tinh chat gian tiep. Noi nam trong tam kiem soat la noi theo y nghia do, chu khong phai la khong che duoc hay khong khong che duoc, se roi vao chu quan duy y chi. Nuoc My co the duoc coi la nuoc co nen kinh te thi truong phat trien nhat. Chu tich Cuc du tru Lien bang (FED) da hang chuc nam lien chu truong quan diem "hy sinh muc tieu tang truong kinh te" cho muc tieu "chong lam phat" nhung tang truong kinh te My van dat lien tuc trong hang chuc nam lien, chu ky suy thoai khong con ngan nhu truoc. Chi den khi gap su kien 11/9 va cung den chu ky suy thoai, tang truong kinh te My bi sut giam, FED moi chuyen sang "hy sinh muc tieu chong lam phat" cho "muc tieu tang truong kinh te" bang mot bien phap rat dac biet, do la cat giam lai suat lien tuc trong 12 lan tu 6,75% xuong con 1% - muc thap nhat trong hon 40 nam qua. Mai den 3 nam sau, khi kinh te My da phuc hoi manh, My moi nang lai suat, nhung ngoai du doan cua moi nguoi la chi tang len co 0,25%, tuc la chi o muc 1,25% va chua co dau hieu nang len nua trong thoi gian sap toi. Viet Nam tuy da chuyen doi sang co che thi truong tu hon 15 nam qua, nhung the che thi truong chua day du, nhieu loai thi truong con so khai hoac hinh thanh chua dong bo, ben canh nhung yeu to tac dong khach quan van con chiu tac dong cua nhieu yeu to chu quan, cua nhung yeu to phi kinh te nhu dau co, loi dung doc quyen. Day chinh la nhung yeu to cung voi nhung yeu to khach quan (nhu gia ca the gioi) nam ngoai tam kiem soat. Truoc mat, gia nhieu mat hang tren the gioi van con dang bien dong manh va rat kho luong, nhat la gia dau, sat thep, phan dam. Net moi cua gia ca trong nuoc thang 7 la gia hang phi luong thuc - thuc pham bat dau tang cao hon gia luong thuc-thuc pham va day co the la xu huong tu nay den cuoi nam. Viec "kiem soat" gia ca cua nhung mat hang nay thuong rat kho. Gia xang dau, gia thuoc, gia sat thep, gia phan bon... trong thoi gian qua la mot vi du: duoc mat nay nhung khong duoc mat kia, tham chi ngan sach van mat ma gia van khong khong che duoc. Roi con nhap lau, xuat lau khi gia trong nuoc cao hoac thap hon gia the gioi, trong khi bien gioi dai hang van cay so, mot so chot chang nhung khong ngan chan ma con tiep tay cho buon lau (kieu Tan Thanh trong vai nam truoc chang han). Roi con yeu to tien te - tin dung khi lai suat thuc gui ngan hang lien tiep xuong "day" moi, gia vang, USD hien dang bien dong bat thuong, gia bat dong san dang trong giai doan cho doi... thi gia hang hoa dich vu se la cho de luong von "chay vao". Rieng ve tien te - tin dung, neu khong tang lai suat huy dong thi tien luu thong khong vao hoac vao thap hon ra, neu nang len thi phai nang lai suat cho vay, ma nang lai suat cho vay thi lam cho chi phi dau vao cua san xuat kinh doanh gia tang lam tang gia ban ra hoac lam giam hieu qua va suc canh tranh, chang nhung khong tan dung duoc ma con khong khac phuc duoc thach thuc khi thuc hien cat giam thue suat thue nhap khau theo cam ket hoi nhap voi khu vuc va the gioi. Mot yeu to tac dong khac la tang luong, mot du kien nam trong ke hoach da duoc gia vuot len truoc don dau, khong the khong tac dong khi phai dua ra mot luong tien khong nho de thuc hien. Roi theo thong le, cac thang cuoi nam gia bao gio cung tang cao hon nhung thang dau nam. Day cung la mot thuc te khong the khong tinh den. 2003 tang 1,2%; 2002 tang 1,2%; 2001 tang 1,7%; 2000 tang 1,1%; 1999 giam 1,1%; 1998 tang 3,3%; 1997 tang 2,6%; 1996 tang 1,9%. Theo Vneconomy |
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