Kiem che toc do tang gia thi truong hay lam phat
Tags: Bo Tai, Milton Friedman, Viet Nam, Va Nha, Nguyen Sinh Hung, Ty le du tru bat buoc, hang hoa va dich vu, su mua sam tai san, ngan hang thuong mai, he thong ngan hang, ngan hang nha nuoc, toc do tang, chong lam phat, nen kinh te, thi truong mo, cung tien, USD
|
Ngay 1/8/2007 Pho thu tuong Nguyen Sinh Hung da ky chi thi ve mot so bien phap cap bach kiem che toc do tang gia thi truong. Ngay cai ten cua Chi thi cung cho thay muc tieu khong phai la chong lam phat ma chi la kiem che toc do tang gia phi ma.
Theo toi, suot 4 nam qua nhan thuc ve lam phat da thuc su co van de va co le nen nhin nhan lai va thay doi nhieu de tranh dua nen kinh te roi vao tinh trang lam phat khong the kiem soat noi. Truoc het phai khang dinh lam phat xuat phat tu cac chinh sach cua Nha nuoc, chu khong phai do nguoi tieu dung, doanh nghiep hay bat cu ai khac. Va Nha nuoc cung co the kiem che lam phat bang cac cong cu chinh sach cua minh. Van de chi la nhin nhan ra van de va co chinh sach phu hop hay khong. Xet tren toan bo nen kinh te voi hang ngan hang van hang hoa va dich vu, muc gia chung se tang neu muc tang cua tong luong tien te cao hon muc tang cua tong luong hang hoa va dich vu. Nguoc lai, trong qua trinh tang truong kinh te nhu giai doan vua qua, luong hang hoa va dich vu lien tuc gia tang. Neu tong so tien ma nhung nguoi mua nam giu (cau) tang cham hon thi co the xay ra giam phat. Nhu the tang truong kinh te khong nhat thiet phai gan voi lam phat nhu nguoi ta van tuong. De cho nen kinh te van hanh suon se, tranh giam phat, Ngan hang Nha nuoc (NHNN) va he thong ngan hang phai bom them tien vao luu thong, tuc la tang luong cung tien. Neu luong cung tien tang can doi, phu hop thi muc gia trung binh khong tang, hay tang cham, lam phat o muc vua phai (thi du 2-3%). Phan tich so bo nhu tren, va cac ly thuyet kinh te phuc tap khac cung cho thay nguyen nhan chinh cua lam phat luon gan voi tong luong cung tien. Ai kiem soat va quyet dinh tong luong cung tien? Chinh la NHNN va he thong ngan hang. NHNN kiem soat tong luong cung tien qua: in them tien, mua hay ban tai san, nhat la bang cac hoat dong thi truong mo (mua lam cho cung tien tang, ban lam giam cung tien), kiem soat cac ngan hang thuong mai (dieu chinh du tru bat buoc, lai suat, v.v.), tom lai bang chinh sach tien te. Neu gia cua mot hay mot vai mat hang tang ma tong cung tien khong doi thi gia cua cac mat hang khac giam tuong doi so voi mat hang tang gia do, nhung khong gay ra lam phat. Vi the nhung y kien gan lam phat o Viet Nam voi tang gia dau quoc te khong han da co co so. Cai quan trong nhat van la tong luong cung tien. Thuc ra, do la ket luan dut khoat cua truong phai kinh te hoc Ao tu hon 60 nam truoc, va cung la ket luan chinh cua truong phai trong tien, truong phai Keynes cung coi cung tien la nguyen nhan quan trong. Nam 1992, Milton Friedman da neu ra 5 su thuc co ban cua chinh sach chong lam phat: 1. Lam phat luon luon va o moi noi deu la hien tuong tien te. Neu tong luong tien (M3) tang nhanh hon muc tang san luong (hang hoa va dich vu) thi se gay ra qua trinh lam phat. 2. Cac khuynh huong lam phat can thoi gian de phat trien. Cung the can thoi gian va su kien quyet de dieu tri lam phat. 3. Co mot chien luoc phu hop cho dieu tri lam phat: giam toc do mo rong cua tong luong tien. 4. Cac dinh che nha nuoc tac dong den tong luong tien hay co kha nang tac dong den tong luong tien. 5. Cac hieu ung phu cua lieu phap dieu tri lam phat, nhu that nghiep tam thoi, co the la khong the tranh duoc. Con o ta thi sao?
Co the thay ve co ban lam phat (o moi noi) chu yeu la do Nha nuoc gay ra, o ta cung vay. Va theo mot y nghia nao day lam phat do Nha nuoc gay ra cung la mot loai “thue” tra hinh ma tat ca nguoi dan deu phai chiu, nhung nguoi dan lai nghi la do khach quan gay ra. Thuc hien chi thi cua Thu tuong Chinh phu, Bo Tai chinh la bo dau tien da quyet dinh dung nhung lieu phap “soc” cat giam thue nhap khau doi voi hang loat mat hang. Nhu tren da phan tich, NHNN phai la co quan chu chot trong viec on dinh gia ca, chong lam phat. The nhung hinh nhu vai tro cua NHNN chua thuc su duoc coi trong. Thuc ra NHNN da co cac bien phap manh de giam luong cung tien nhu bat cac ngan hang thuong mai phai tang ty le du tru bat buoc. Tuy nhien cac hoat dong thi truong mo duong nhu chua phat huy duoc tac dung. NHNN mua vao (bat cu thu gi, ke ca USD) deu lam tang luong cung tien, nay muon giam luong cung tien, thi ngoai viec han che he so tao tien cua cac ngan hang thuong mai (bang tang du tru bat buoc, bang chinh sach lai suat), nhung hoat dong thi truong mo nhu viec ban ra (trai phieu chinh phu, trai phieu NHNN, v.v.) cua NHNN de thu tien ve la cung het suc quan trong. Rat tiec viec ban ra nay de thu tien ve chua hoat dong hieu qua. Thay vao do Chi thi lai yeu cau Bo Tai chinh phat hanh ngay trai phieu Chinh phu, trai phieu KBNN va tin phieu kho bac. Dung la viec lam nay se thu duoc tien ve, nhung khong phai cho NHNN (de rut bot tien khoi luu thong), ma la cho Kho bac Nha nuoc de dua vao luu thong bang cach “giai ngan nhanh, co hieu qua” so tien nay vao dau tu (chac chan cho cac tap doan hay cong trinh), nhu the tru thoi gian tre tu khi thu duoc tien den khi giai ngan, luong cung tien khong thay doi nen khong co tac dong gi den chong lam phat ca, ma cung voi giam thue co the con mang nguy co ngan sach cang tham hut, hieu qua su dung thap, co the gay ra tac dong lam phat trong tuong lai. Viec giam thue nhap khau, day manh san xuat, khac phuc dich benh, v.v. de lam tang tong luong hang hoa va dich vu co tac dong lam tang cung hang va dich vu cung la tot de kiem che lam phat, song van phai luu y nhiem vu chinh la cua NHNN. O nuoc ta, NHNN nam trong bo may hanh phap, Thong doc la thanh vien chinh phu, va vai tro cua NHNN trong chong lam phat chua that su duoc coi trong (80% cong viec nay phai la cua NHNN), nen khong ro ket qua cua viec on dinh gia theo chi thi cua Thu tuong Chinh phu se ra sao. Viec co gang dat muc tieu tang truong ve so luong bang moi gia, viec van gianh qua nhieu nguon luc tai chinh uu ai cho cac DN quoc doanh hoat dong khong may hieu qua (dau co duoc goi la tap doan), va co chinh sach gay lam phat co the dan den nhung hau qua khon luong. Qua phan tich tren ta thay, Chi thi cua Chinh phu co ten rat chinh xac, kiem che toc do tang gia chu khong kiem che duoc lam phat.
|
||||
|
Viet Bao
|
